The numbers of viruses produced in a year of an epidemic of a disease like Covid 19 is literally more than can be meaningfully conceived of… it’s like thinking about how many grains of sand there are or stars in all galaxies… essentially meaningless except… a fuckload. These aren’t just random numbers, there are so many because we’ve seen so many variations. There’s a reason only certain storms are named and most covid variants are never recognized by more then the names used to organize them by scientists that have more to do with what tubes they were next to than anything else. Trust me… there have been tens of thousands of different genomic sequences of covid-19 and we’ve seen thousands of them… most of them only once. A single point mutation or a deletion of a portion of the genome or proteins that has no noticeable impact and we don’t see ever again isn’t going to get mentioned in public publications except perhaps as part of a list of isolated wobble sites/proteins/antigens. There’s no reason for us to slap a letter on a variant unless it’s one we are planning on following the progression of.
Both options could damage trust in the expert messaging. And if that turns out to be the case, the CDC and others have to decide between correcting their own message (on delta's transmissability) or ignoring the latest science. It could easily turn out that this is the main reason for its spread, and it could have similar or even lower transmissability than the original strain. We're only just now seeing a couple studies that suggest that the Delta variant has a shorter incubation time. I think the tendency to make declarative statements during this phase is really unfortunate and plays into the hands of anti-science advocates who jump on reasons to mistrust the experts. So in the first weeks and months after public health officials start talking about a variants, the evidence is unavoidably shaky. A variant usually attracts attention because of epidemiological data (high rate of spread in a population where there happens to be good sequencing), not because scientists can conclude much of anything from reading the genetic sequence. But I'd like to emphasize something that's been a pet peeve of mine recently: it is difficult and time-consuming to conclude that a variant has any of these characteristics. We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and by the depth of our answers. For more open-ended questions, try /r/AskScienceDiscussion | Sign up to be a panelist!.Looking for flair? Sign up to be a panelist!.Neuroscience, Neurology, Neurochemistry, Cognitive NeuroscienceĪsk Anything Wednesday - Biology, Chemistry, Neuroscience, Medicine, PsychologyĪskScience AMA Series: Agar Art Contest, American Society for MicrobiologyĪsk Anything Wednesday - Economics, Political Science, Linguistics, AnthropologyĪsk Anything Wednesday - Physics, Astronomy, Earth and Planetary ScienceĪlfred Russel Wallace's Birthday (b.1823)Īsk Anything Wednesday - Engineering, Mathematics, Computer scienceĪskScience AMA Series: Long COVID + Depression Medicine, Oncology, Dentistry, Physiology, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease, Pharmacy, Human Body Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Developmental Psychology, Abnormal, Social Psychology Social Science, Political Science, Economics, Archaeology, Anthropology, Linguisticsīiology, Evolution, Morphology, Ecology, Synthetic Biology, Microbiology, Cellular Biology, Molecular Biology, Paleontology Mechanical Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Structural Engineering, Computer Engineering, Aerospace EngineeringĬhemistry, Organic Chemistry, Polymers, Biochemistry
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